Model your course launch before it happens — enter your list size, conversion rate, and price to see revenue, student count, and the real impact of a payment plan.
Here's how most course launches die: the content is great, the heart is in it, and the math gets done on the Tuesday of launch week when it's far too late to change anything. You don't discover your list was too small to hit the number — you find out live, refreshing the Stripe dashboard, wondering why. Do the math first instead. Enter your email list size, an honest conversion rate, your course price, and the payment plan you're toying with, and the simulator hands back gross revenue, student count, platform fees, and net profit on one screen — three weeks before the nerves arrive.
The payment plan section is where most creators underestimate complexity. You set the payment plan price per installment, the number of installments, and the percentage of buyers you expect to choose the plan over paying in full. The tool calculates how much more revenue the payment plan premium generates — and reminds you that collecting on installments takes longer than a single-pay launch.
What conversion rate to actually expect
The default in the simulator is 3% — a reasonable middle estimate for an engaged email list with a relevant offer and a well-executed launch sequence. Warm audiences that have been primed on the topic for weeks can convert at 5 to 8%. Cold lists, poorly segmented audiences, or a first launch to a small list might convert at 1 to 2%.
The Audience Size field is your email list count because email converts dramatically better than social followers for course launches. If your list is 5,000 and your social following is 40,000, the model should be built on the 5,000. Social media reach does not translate at the same rate.
Try three scenarios in the Scenario view: conservative at 1.5%, realistic at 3%, and optimistic at 5%. The revenue difference is often large enough to clarify whether a launch is worth attempting at your current list size. A 5,000-person list at 1.5% is 75 students. At 3%, it is 150. At $497 per course, that is $37,350 versus $74,550 — the same list, the same content, very different financial outcomes depending on the launch execution.
Modeling the payment plan effect
Payment plans increase purchase rate for higher-priced courses. A $497 course feels accessible to more buyers than it otherwise would. The cost is that payment plan buyers pay a premium over time — typically 20 to 30% more in total — which means the plan also slightly increases total revenue if enough buyers choose it.
The tool models this with three inputs: payment plan price per installment, number of installments, and the percentage of buyers choosing the plan. With a $199 x 3 installment plan on a $497 course, buyers choosing the plan pay $597 total — a $100 premium. If 40% of 150 students choose the plan, that adds $6,000 to total collected revenue over the installment window.
The With Plans KPI at the top of the dashboard shows total projected collected revenue assuming all installments complete. This is almost always higher than the full-pay-only number, which is why most serious launches include a payment plan. The caveat: failed installments reduce this number, and the tool does not model that risk.
Platform fee and launch cost reality check
The Platform Fee % field accounts for what your course platform (Kajabi, Teachable, Thinkific, Gumroad) keeps. Rates range from 5 to 10% on most platforms, with transaction fees on top for some plans. Enter the true percentage — not just the platform's advertised rate, which often excludes payment processing.
Launch Costs covers the real spending that makes a launch happen: paid ads, email service upgrades, tech tools you bought or upgraded specifically for the launch, video production costs, and any support hiring. A creator who spends $2,000 on ads and tools for a $74,550 launch is running a 97% gross profit margin. A creator who spends $15,000 on ads for a $74,550 launch has a 79% gross margin — still strong, but the cost matters for deciding whether to scale spend.
The Net Profit KPI at the bottom of the dashboard subtracts platform fees and launch costs from gross revenue. This is the number that matters for deciding whether the launch was financially worth the three months of work leading up to it.
Pricing scenarios and the revenue sweet spot
The Pricing view runs your launch model across a range of price points — from $97 to $997 — and shows students, revenue, and net profit at each. This is useful when you are debating whether to price at $297 versus $497. The model shows that at the same conversion rate, a $497 price with 150 students produces more revenue than a $297 price would need to justify.
But conversion rates are not price-independent. Higher prices do reduce conversion, especially for first-time buyers. The model does not automatically adjust conversion for price — you would need to run separate scenarios at each price point with a lower conversion assumption for the higher prices. The Pricing view gives you the revenue side; your judgment provides the conversion adjustment.
Audience size planning for a future launch
The Audience view answers the question many pre-launch creators need answered: how big does my list need to be before a launch makes sense? Enter your target net profit — say, $20,000 — and the model shows the list size required at several conversion rates.
At 3% conversion and $497 price with $2,000 in launch costs and 5% platform fee, hitting $20,000 net profit requires roughly 86 students, which requires about 2,875 subscribers. At a 2% conversion rate, you need 4,300 subscribers. This calculation is what should drive your email list-building priority in the months before a launch, and it takes about 30 seconds to run here.
Answer the question now instead of carrying it around your whole launch week like a stone in your shoe: at your real numbers, what does this actually pay out? Run it, then start a free trial to save your scenarios — so next launch you're comparing against what really happened, not what you hoped for.
How to use it
- Enter Audience Size (email list count, not social followers), then set your Conversion Rate % based on your list's warmth and past engagement.
- Set your Course Price and Platform Fee % — use your actual platform rate including transaction fees.
- Fill in the Payment Plan section: Price per installment, Number of Installments, and % Choosing Payment Plan.
- Enter your Launch Costs (ads, tech, production) to see Net Profit after all expenses.
- Open the Scenario view to compare Conservative, Realistic, and Optimistic conversion scenarios side by side before committing to a launch budget.
Who it's for
- Creator with 5,000 subscribers deciding whether to launch now — Models 3% conversion at $497: 150 students, $74,550 revenue, $2,000 launch costs, 5% platform fee — net profit of $68,800 confirms the launch is worth executing now.
- First-time course creator nervous about a low list size — Uses the Audience view to find that $10,000 net profit at 2% conversion and $297 price requires a 1,750-person list — currently at 900, sets a 3-month list-building goal before launching.
- Experienced creator testing whether a payment plan is worth it — Adds a $197 x 3 plan at 40% uptake — the tool shows $7,200 additional collected revenue over the instalment window on a 200-student launch, confirming the plan is worth offering.
- Creator deciding between $397 and $497 price points — Runs both in the Pricing view at 3% conversion — $397 generates $59,550, $497 generates $74,550 at the same student count, a $15,000 difference that resolves the pricing debate.
Key terms
- Conversion rate
- The percentage of your audience who purchase the course. Applied to email lists, this is typically 1 to 5% depending on list quality and launch execution.
- Payment plan premium
- The additional total amount a payment plan buyer pays compared to a full-pay buyer. Most payment plans charge 20 to 30% more in total to offset payment risk and the time value of money.
- Platform fee
- The percentage of revenue retained by the course hosting platform. Typically 5 to 10% of transaction value, sometimes with additional payment processing fees.
- Net profit
- Gross revenue minus platform fees and launch costs. The actual financial outcome of the launch, before income tax.
Frequently asked questions
Should I use my email list size or my total social following in the Audience field?
Email list size. Social followers convert at a fraction of the rate of email subscribers for course launches. If you have 500 email subscribers and 10,000 Instagram followers, model on 500.
What conversion rate is realistic for a first launch?
For a first launch to a small, engaged list, 1 to 3% is realistic. Creators with established trust and an audience that knows the topic can hit 3 to 5%. The first time you launch anything, assume the lower end until you have data.
Does the tool account for payment plan defaults?
No. The payment plan revenue calculation assumes all installments complete. In practice, some payment plans fail. Industry default rates on installment plans vary — budget conservatively and treat the full payment plan revenue number as an upper bound.
What counts as a Launch Cost?
Paid advertising, email service fees, course platform upgrades, tech tools purchased for the launch, video production costs, copywriting, and any other direct spending you would not have incurred without the launch.
Can I model a webinar launch where only webinar attendees see the offer?
Yes. Enter your expected webinar attendee count as the Audience Size and use a higher conversion rate (webinar attendees typically convert at 5 to 15%) to reflect the more qualified audience.